WASHINGTON – November 19, 2015 – (RealEstateRama) — The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the U.S. Census Bureau jointly announced the following new residential construction statistics for October 2015:
Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,150,000. This is 4.1 percent (±1.5%) above the revised September rate of 1,105,000, and is 2.7 percent (±2.2%) above the October 2014 estimate of 1,120,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 711,000; this is 2.4 percent (±1.5%) above the revised September figure of 694,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 405,000 in October.
Privately owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,060,000. This is 11.0 percent (±13.5%)* below the revised September estimate of 1,191,000 and is 1.8 percent (±11.2%)* below the October 2014 rate of 1,079,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 722,000; this is 2.4 percent (±9.9%)* below the revised September figure of 740,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 327,000.
Privately owned housing completions in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 965,000. This is 6.0 percent (±15.8%)* below the revised September estimate of 1,027,000 and is 5.2 percent (±12.1%)* above the October 2014 rate of 917,000. Single-family housing completions in October were at a rate of 640,000; this is 0.5 percent (±13.3%)* below the revised September rate of 643,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 318,000.
New Residential Construction data for November 2015 will be released on Wednesday, December 16, 2015, at 8:30 A.M. EST.
In interpreting changes in the statistics in this release, note that month-to-month changes in seasonally adjusted statistics often show movements which may be irregular. It may take two months to establish an underlying trend for building permit authorizations, 4 months for total starts, and six months for total completions. The statistics in this release are estimated from sample surveys and are subject to sampling variability as well as nonsampling error including bias and variance from response, nonreporting, and undercoverage. Estimated relative standard errors of the most recent data are shown in the tables. Whenever a statement such as “2.5 percent (±3.2%) above” appears in the text, this indicates the range (-0.7 to +5.7 percent) in which the actual percent change is likely to have occurred. All ranges given for percent changes are 90-percent confidence intervals and account only for sampling variability. If a range does not contain zero, the change is statistically significant. If it does contain zero, the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease. The same policies apply to the confidence intervals for percent changes shown in the tables. On average, the preliminary seasonally adjusted estimates of total building permits, housing starts and housing completions are revised about three percent or less. Explanations of confidence intervals and sampling variability can be found on our web site listed above.
* 90% confidence interval includes zero. The Census Bureau does not have sufficient statistical evidence to conclude that the actual change is different from zero.
U.S. Dept. of Housing and Urban Development
Office of Public Affairs
U.S. Census Bureau
Raemeka Mayo or Stephen Cooper
Economic Indicators Division