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MBA Forecasts Commercial and Multifamily Origination Volume at $549 Billion in 2018

MBA Forecasts Commercial and Multifamily Origination Volume at $549 Billion in 2018

SAN DIEGO, CA (February 11, 2018)- The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects commercial and multifamily mortgage originations will decline slightly in 2018, ending the year at $549 billion, down three percent from the 2017 volumes. MBA expects volumes to remain at roughly that level in 2019 as well. MBA forecasts mortgage banker originations of just multifamily mortgages at $248 billion in 2018, with total multifamily lending at $271 billion. After strong growth in recent years, multifamily lending is expected to hold roughly steady in 2019.

“There is a strong mix of both headwinds and tailwinds in the commercial real estate finance markets right now,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Our sense is that for commercial and multifamily mortgage borrowing and lending, the net effect is likely to be close to a wash. ”

“Rising interest rates, slowing NOI growth, pressure on capitalization rates and fewer loan maturities are some of the factors that will be holding the markets back. At the same time, continued economic growth, large amounts of investment capital looking for a home — and liking the looks of commercial real estate- and the recent tax reform legislation may all push the transaction markets forward. The magnitude and opposing impacts of some of these changes, however, raises the level of uncertainty,” Woodwell continued.

Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to continue to grow in 2018, ending the year more than seven percent higher than at the end of 2017.

MBA’s commercial/multifamily members can download a copy of MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at

Ali Ahmad

(202) 557- 2727


The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,400 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field.


Mortgage Bankers Association
1331 L Street, NW
Washington, DC 20005

Phone: (202) 557-2700