Very Low Inventory Impacts Sales
Denver, CO – November 15, 2012) – October saw a continuation of the trend throughout the year, with both home prices and home sales rising above the levels seen one year ago. In the October RE/MAX National Housing report, a survey of MLS data in 52 metropolitan areas, closed transactions increased 17.8% over October 2011. The Median Home Price rose 2.1% higher than the median seen last October, representing the ninth month in a row that prices have been higher than the same month last year. The falling Inventory is a significant concern in many markets. The number of homes for sale in October was 28.9% lower than last October. This has caused prices to rise, but also presents a serious challenge for many homebuyers. Multiple offers and some bidding wars have occurred in markets where inventory is sharply lower.
“As we enter the fourth quarter, 2012 is looking like the turn-around year for housing, with significant increases in sales and prices,” said Margaret Kelly, CEO of RE/MAX, LLC. “However, we recognize that this recovery is still fragile and dependent on more reasonable lending and regulation. If qualified buyers can obtain mortgages and more inventory comes to market, this recovery could become even stronger next spring.”
The October RE/MAX National Housing Report shows that home sales were 17.8% higher than October 2011. This represents the sixteenth month in a row when sales were higher than the same month in the previous year. Sales were also 5.4% higher than the previous month, which is an impressive performance since seasonal patterns typically see a slight drop from September to October. Of the 52 metro areas surveyed in October, 48 saw higher sales than one year ago and a record 40 saw double digit increases including:
Providence, RI +48.0%, Chicago, IL +44.0%, Albuquerque, NM +39.3%, Burlington, VT +37.0%, Wichita, KS +32.2%, Nashville, TN +31.5% and Charlotte, NC +31.3%.
$158,900 was the median price of all homes sold in October. This represents a 3.7% drop from the median price in September, but a 2.1% increase from October 2011. October is the ninth consecutive month with higher prices than the same time last year. Prices are now following a traditional trend of dropping lower in the Fall and Winter, after a peak in June. However, prices remain higher than the same month in 2011. Of the 52 metro areas surveyed for the October RE/MAX National Housing Report, a significant 92% or 48 metros reported higher prices than last year, with 18 seeing double-digit gains including: Phoenix, AZ +33.9%, San Francisco, CA +31.2%, Detroit, MI +26.3%, Boise, ID +24.7%, Miami, FL +22.0%, Seattle, WA +16.9%, and Tampa, FL +16.5%.
The average Days on Market for homes sold in October was 82. This is just one day higher than the 81 day average in September, but 13 days less than the average of 95 seen last October. October represents the fifth time in the past 12 months that a Days on Market average was below 90, and it was the second lowest average since June 2010. The Days on Market average continues to fall in many markets due to very low inventory. Days on Market is the number of days between first being listed in an MLS and when a sales contract is signed.
In October, the number of homes for sale fell 6.3% from September and 28.9% from inventory levels seen in October 2011. Month-to-month inventories have now fallen for 28 consecutive months. Rising prices are a result of sharply declining inventories, but a low inventory also results in fewer closed transactions. With the rate of sales in October, the average Months Supply was 5.2, two and a half months lower than the 7.7 average in October 2011. A low Months Supply continues to be seen in cities like San Francisco, CA 1.1, Los Angeles, CA 1.5, Orlando, FL 2.4, Denver, CO 2.4, Washington, DC 2.5, Seattle, WA 2.6, San Diego, CA 2.7, Detroit, MI 2.7 and Miami, FL 2.8.
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The following is an excerpt from the monthly RE/MAX National Housing Report. For more information or to see the full two-page report (attached), contact (303) 796-3667.
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The RE/MAX National Housing Report is distributed each month on or about the 15th. The first Report was distributed in August 2008.The Report is based on MLS data in approximately 53 metropolitan areas, includes all residential property types, and is not annualized.For maximum representation, many of the largest metro areas in the country are represented, and an attempt is made to include at least one metro from each state. Metro area definitions include the specific counties established by the U.S. Government’s Office of Management and Budget, with some exceptions.
Transactions are the total number of closed residential transactions during the given month.Month’s Supply of Inventory is thetotal number of residential properties listed for sale at the end of the month (active inventory) divided by the number of sales contracts signed (pended) during the month.Where “pended” data is unavailable, this calculation is made using closed transactions.Days on Market is the number of days that pass from the time a property is listed until the property goes under contract for all residential properties sold during the month.Median Sales Price is the median price of all residential properties sold during the month.
MLS data is provided by contracted data aggregators, RE/MAX brokerages and regional offices. While MLS data is believed to be accurate, it cannot be guaranteed.MLS data is constantly being updated, making any analysis a snapshot at a particular time.Every month the RE/MAX National Housing Report re-calculates the previous period’s data to ensure accuracy over time.All raw data remains the intellectual property of each local MLS organization.