Builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes fell three points to 29 in October, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). NAHB said the reading is the lowest since June 2012. The index is seasonally adjusted, and a number above 50 means more builders view conditions as good than poor.
All three major HMI indices declined. Current sales conditions fell two points to 33, expectations for the next six months dropped five points to 32, and prospective buyer traffic fell five points to 18. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said buyer traffic is at its lowest level since April 2012, excluding the onset of the pandemic in April 2020.
- Price cuts: 43% of builders cut prices in October, the highest share during the 2020-2026 period. The average cut stayed at 6% for the seventh consecutive month.
- Incentives: 65% of builders used sales incentives, the 19th straight month at least 60% have done so.
- Regions (three-month moving averages): Northeast down one point to 38, Midwest down three to 40, South down one to 30, West down two to 26. NAHB noted Midwest single-family permits are up 2.9%.
NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said mortgage rates have climbed well above 7% in recent weeks, and that higher gas prices and inflation have weakened buyer traffic. He also cited higher costs for construction loans, materials and diesel. According to Owens, more than one-third of builders reported immigration enforcement activity in their market areas in the past month, causing construction delays. He said the administration’s regulatory reform efforts are easing some cost pressures. Dietz said higher rates, elevated construction costs and weaker consumer confidence are keeping buyers on the sidelines.
Why it matters
The survey shows how builders describe current conditions, including widespread price cuts and incentives. Buyers shopping for new construction may encounter these discounts, while agents and builders can use the regional figures to compare markets.
Source: NAHB, October 19, 2026. Read the original release
