Housing Market Conditions Report Shows Q1 Home Price Growth in Most Eighth District States


ST. LOUIS – June 7, 2013 – (RealEstateRama) — First quarter 2013 house prices were higher across most of the seven states that comprise the Federal Reserve’s Eighth District compared with this time last year, according to the St. Louis Fed’s latest Housing Market Conditions report.

The Eighth District states are comprised of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee.* The quarterly HMC report provides a snapshot of conditions in the Eighth District states and the U.S. via color-coded heat maps that reflect the number of mortgages considered seriously delinquent (i.e., those that are delinquent 90 days or more, or are in foreclosure) and the respective quarterly percent change in these numbers: by county for the U.S., and by zip code for each state.

In addition, each report contains a listing of the top 10 zip codes with mortgages under stress in each Eighth District state, along with historical house price index charts for the U.S. and for each Eighth District state.

Year-Over-Year Comparisons

In comparing first quarter 2013 to first quarter 2012, growth in Eighth District house prices lagged behind U.S. growth of 6.4 percent. Arkansas reported the largest year-over-year increase in the Eighth District, at 5.1 percent. Meanwhile, Illinois prices were up 0.5 percent; Indiana, 3.1 percent; Kentucky, up 2.3 percent; Missouri, up 0.7 percent and Tennessee, up 4 percent. Mississippi was the only state to show a slight decrease, at 0.2 percent.

Quarter-Over-Quarter Comparisons

Eighth District quarter-versus-quarter growth also lagged slightly behind U.S. growth. Nationally, prices were up 1.9 percent from fourth quarter 2012 to first quarter 2013, compared with 1.7 percent in Arkansas; 0.9 percent in Illinois; 0.7 percent in Indiana, 1 percent in Kentucky and 0.7 percent in Tennessee. Meanwhile, prices were down 0.3 percent in Mississippi and down 0.7 percent in Missouri.

Prices Remain Above 2011 Lows and Below 2007 Peaks

While prices were up across all Eighth District states from lows reached in 2011, they remained below their 2007 peaks. Compared with their respective 2011 lows, Arkansas house prices were up 10.1 percent, while nationally, prices were up 7.4 percent. Meanwhile prices in Illinois were up 1 percent; Indiana, up 5 percent; Kentucky, up 4.1 percent; Mississippi, up 1.4 percent; Missouri, up 1.6 percent and Mississippi, up 4 percent.

Prices in all Eighth District states and across the nation remained below their respective 2007 peaks, ranging from Illinois, where prices were down 30.6 percent from the state’s peak, to Kentucky, where prices were down only 3.5 percent. Nationally, peak-to-current prices were down 19.8 percent. Meanwhile, prices were down 5.4 percent in Arkansas, 6.8 percent in Indiana, 14.8 percent in Mississippi, 18.1 percent in Missouri and 13.2 percent in Tennessee.

Seriously Delinquent Mortgages

In the first quarter 2013, the number of seriously delinquent home mortgages (90-plus days overdue, or in foreclosure) fell in all Eighth District states. Arkansas delinquencies fell 13 basis points to 6.23 percent; 42 points to 8.41 percent in Illinois; 26 points to 6.46 percent in Indiana; 14 points to 5.12 percent in Kentucky; 33 points to 8.11 percent in Mississippi; 8 points to 4.01 percent in Missouri and 13 points to 5.32 percent in Tennessee. Nationally, delinquencies were down 14 basis points to 6.46 percent.

* Please note: While the Eighth District is comprised of the entire state of Arkansas and only parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee, analysis is conducted on a statewide basis for each state’s respective report.

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