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MBA Forecasts $230 Billion of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Originations in 2012; $2.4 Trillion of Commercial/Multifamily Mortgage Debt Outstanding

Atlanta, GA – February 6, 2012 – (RealEstateRama) — In its inaugural forecast of the commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) projects originations of commercial and multifamily mortgages will hit $230 billion in 2012, an increase of 17 percent from 2011 volumes, and continue to rise to $290 billion in 2015. Commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding is expected to also grow in 2012, ending the year above $2.4 trillion, two percent higher than at the end of 2011. By the end of 2015, mortgage debt outstanding is forecast to exceed $2.5 trillion. MBA previewed its forecast of the commercial/multifamily markets today at its Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Housing Convention in Atlanta.

“Our forecast anticipates continued strength in lending by life companies and the GSEs, increased lending by banks and others, and a slow but steady return in CMBS activity,” said Jamie Woodwell, MBA’s Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. “Low loan maturity volumes over the next few years, coupled with moderate sales transaction activity, will mean that a relatively robust supply of mortgage capital will be a catalyst for deal activity.”

Commercial/multifamily mortgage bankers’ originations volumes are projected to rise to $230 billion in 2012, $245 billion in 2013, $265 billion in 2014 and $290 billion in 2015. The increases in originations activity will push commercial/multifamily mortgage debt outstanding to $2.4 trillion by the end of 2012 and more than $2.5 trillion in 2015.

The detailed forecast will be released to MBA’s commercial/multifamily members in the coming weeks at\research.

The projections come from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s inaugural forecast of key commercial/multifamily real estate finance markets. The forecast will be available to MBA’s commercial/multifamily members and projects commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes, the level of mortgage debt outstanding and loan maturity volumes, including details for major investor groups and for the multifamily real estate finance sector.

“MBA provides a range of tools and resources to help its members do business,” said Jay Brinkmann, MBA’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of Research and Education. “MBA’s new commercial/multifamily real estate finance forecast joins our regular economic and single-family finance forecasts, and provides MBA members with another valuable resource for their business planning.”

MBA’s commercial/multifamily members will be able to download a copy of MBA’s Commercial/Multifamily Real Estate Finance Forecast at


The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is the national association representing the real estate finance industry, an industry that employs more than 280,000 people in virtually every community in the country. Headquartered in Washington, D.C., the association works to ensure the continued strength of the nation’s residential and commercial real estate markets; to expand homeownership and extend access to affordable housing to all Americans. MBA promotes fair and ethical lending practices and fosters professional excellence among real estate finance employees through a wide range of educational programs and a variety of publications. Its membership of over 2,200 companies includes all elements of real estate finance: mortgage companies, mortgage brokers, commercial banks, thrifts, Wall Street conduits, life insurance companies and others in the mortgage lending field. For additional information, visit MBA’s Web site: